Swine Flu

Ninety years ago, one of my grandmothers-- my father's mother--  died in the influenza pandemic of 1918. I have long wondered if my father's ability to recover from his contraction of that influenza is related to his longevity. As you would expect, I have always paid attention to potential pandemics, such as the current swine flu.

My impression is that most people assume that, because of advances in knowledge and medicine, something like the 1918 pandemic could not happen today. Although the number of its victims is unknowable--  India did not keep good statistics, for example-- it certainly killed far more people than died in World War I. One rough estimate that I have seen is that about a third of the world's 1.5 billion population contracted that influenza, and 50 million died. Because of advances in knowledge and financial engineering, up until several months ago, most people were similarly complacent that we could never suffer the sort of  collapse of the banking system and financial markets that the world experienced in the 1930s.